An Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting Political Instability in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study aims to examine the root causes of political instability in the Amhara regional state in Ethiopia. Over the past few years, there has been constant unrest and an emergency in the region due to the conflict between the government and the militia group "Fano". The study will be using a quantitative research design that aims to identify and analyse the most critical socio-economic, institutional and governance factors that influence instability. The survey was conducted with a representative sample of 385 respondents, sampled in proportion to the number of each of the four groups government officials, members of opposition party representatives, members of civil society, activists, religious and community leaders, and business representatives. The results show that policy and regulatory uncertainty, conflicts, litigation and contractual mismatches; Operational disruptions and government instability: Frequent changes in leadership or government policies. Political instability is largely attributed to the collapse of leadership, the weakness of governance, limited institutional accountability and the poor socio-economic opportunities in the region. The regression also shows that governance and institutional effectiveness are significant positively influences on the level of instability (B = 0.434, p < 0.01), and this suggest that the insufficient condition of governance and institutional effectiveness significantly increase the probability of coming of political instability. The study concludes that liberalizing governance, institutional capacity building, and implementing inclusive policy measures on structural causes of political instability in Amhara Regional State are important pillars in achieving sustainable peace and political stability. These measures are key to achieving sustainable stability, economic resilience and social cohesion across the region.