Rally Messaging Content and Delivery as Determinants of Voter Trust in Political Parties: An Empirical Investigation Using PLS-SEM in the Indian Context

Abstract

Political rallies occupy a central role in Indian democratic campaigns, serving as primary platforms through which parties communicate their agendas directly to voters. Scholars of political management, including Steve Jarding of Harvard University — who has advised Prime Ministers and Presidents globally — argue that the architecture of political messaging and the authenticity of its delivery are the foundational determinants of voter trust (Jarding & Slade, 2006; Jarding, 2012). This study investigates three research objectives: (1) to evaluate how rally message content influences voter trust, (2) to assess how delivery style influences voter trust, and (3) to examine their combined effect. Using a cross-sectional survey design with a sample of 150 respondents from Maharashtra, India, the study employs Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) for scale validation followed by Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) via SmartPLS 4.0 to test three hypotheses at a significance level of α = 0.05. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure (KMO = 0.847) and Bartlett's Test (p < 0.001) confirmed factor analysis suitability, with three factors explaining 63.8% of total variance. Results confirm that message content (β = 0.412, p < 0.001) and delivery style (β = 0.338, p < 0.001) are both significant positive determinants of voter trust, with their combined model explaining 61.3% of variance (R² = 0.613). The study contributes the first empirically validated PLS-SEM model of rally-specific trust formation in the Indian democratic context.