Brinkmanship and International Law: The Legalization of Global Crises in the AI Era

Abstract

Brinkmanship—the deliberate manipulation of escalation risks to force concessions—has long been a feature of international politics, particularly in nuclear and great‑power crises. In the twenty‑first century, this strategy is increasingly "legalized": states frame high‑risk actions in terms of self-defense, sanctions, human rights, and institutional mandates, while international bodies respond through resolutions, judicial proceedings, and expert reports. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapon systems (AWS), and autonomous cyber capabilities intensifies this dynamic, creating new domains in which brinkmanship operates and straining existing legal frameworks. This report analyses brinkmanship and its legalization across classical and emerging domains, with particular attention to the AI era. It surveys doctrinal developments in the law on the use of force, international humanitarian law (IHL), cyber and information warfare, economic sanctions, and human rights protections. Drawing on recent UN reports, expert manuals, and academic literature, it argues that AI‑driven crises expose structural weaknesses in attribution, accountability, and norm formation, and that the legalization of global crises has ambivalent effects: it both constrains and enables risky state behavior.