Modelling India’s LNG Import Demand up to 2047 and Evaluating Terminal Capacity Adequacy

Abstract

This study forecasts India’s LNG import demand up to 2047 and evaluates the adequacy of regasification terminal capacity under various utilisation scenarios. An ARIMA(1,1,0) model was applied to historical LNG import data from 2014 to 2023 to generate conservative upper-bound forecasts. The results indicate a gradual upward trend in LNG imports, with estimates suggesting a significant growth in import volumes by the mid-2040s. These forecasts were translated into the required terminal capacity by applying three utilisation scenarios (60 %, 70 %, and 80 %) to account for operational downtimes and maintenance requirements. Under the 60% utilisation scenario, capacity demand increases markedly compared with higher utilisation levels, highlighting potential infrastructure gaps relative to current and planned capacities. The findings underscore the importance of adopting a conservative scenario-based planning framework to ensure energy security and inform investment decisions in LNG infrastructure. Future studies should incorporate additional variables, such as industrial consumption and policy dynamics, to refine these long-term forecasts and support more resilient infrastructure planning.